This project applies the methods of this course to analyze a business decision problem. This analysis can be done individually or in teams of up to four people. Examples of appropriate business decision areas include process improvement or re-engineering, facility siting, new ventures, new products/services, acquisitions, divestments, capital expenditures, lease-buy, make-buy, personnel planning, technology choice, and research/development planning.
The project must use the decision analysis methods that we are covering in class. At minimum, the decision problem must have (1) at least three alternatives, (2) at least three evaluation measures, and (3) significant uncertainty about some important element of the decision. You must consult at least two outside expert data sources for information. These sources must include both written material and an expert. While these requirements are minimums, the real requirement is that the decision problem be defensively analyzed. That is likely to require more extensive analysis than the minimums.
There are three deliverables: 1) a written proposal, 2) an oral interim report, and 3) oral and written final reports. The deliverables are cumulative, and much of what you prepare for each assignment can be used in later assignments. Note that each team only submits one copy of each written deliverable.
Proposal: Less than two double-spaced typewritten pages, excluding tables or figures, and includes: (1) a summary of the decision problem to be analyzed, (2) a preliminary list of evaluation considerations with evaluation measures, (3) a preliminary list of alternatives to be considered, and (4) proposed expert data sources to be consulted.
Interim Presentation: The oral interim presentation contains all the information needed to complete the analysis of the decision problem except that it does not have to include the final numerical calculations and conclusions. Address this presentation to someone who understands the material presented in this course. Most project teams choose to make computer-based presentations using PowerPoint. If you do this, or use overheads in your presentation, please provide the instructor with a copy of your overheads at the beginning of your presentation. (Legible reduced overheads-two or six overheads to a page-are preferred.)
Use the following outline for the interim presentation:
- Problem Statement: Overview of the decision problem and the major considerations in analyzing it.
- Evaluation Considerations and Evaluation Measures: Describe the process used to determine evaluation considerations and evaluation measures, including a discussion of other evaluation considerations that seem relevant and the reasons that they were not included. Present a value hierarchy, and completely describe the final set of evaluation measures. Thus, completely present any constructed evaluation measure scales.
- Decision Alternatives: Describe the process used to determine alternatives, including a discussion of other alternatives that seem relevant and the reasons these were not analyzed. Describe the final set of alternatives used in the decision analysis.
- Value Function Assessment: Present the general procedure used for the assessment but not a blow-by-blow description. Show the parameters for the value function.
- Scenarios: Present the scenarios used to analyze the impact of uncertainties. Describe the process used to develop the final set of scenarios, as well as other scenarios that seem relevant and the reasons these were not included.
- Data Collection and Evaluation Measure Scores: Present the procedure used to determine the evaluation measure scores (levels) for each alternative under each scenario. Present the evaluation measure scores for each scenario, perhaps in one or more tables.
- Value Calculations and Sensitivity Analysis: Briefly describe how you will carry out the value computations required to complete your evaluation.
Final Presentation and Report: The final presentation and the final written report include (perhaps with corrections) the material in the interim presentation and extend this to complete the numerical evaluation of alternatives. As with the interim presentation, if you use overheads or PowerPoint for you presentation, please provide the instructor with a copy of your overheads at the beginning of your presentation. (Legible reduced overheads-two or six overheads to a page-are preferred.)
The length of the written report must be less than ten double-spaced typewritten pages, excluding tables or figures. With the exception of the Conclusions section, the audience is the same as for the interim presentation. Address the Conclusions section to a less technical audience, as discussed below.
Use the following table of contents for the written report:
- Problem Statement: The same as the corresponding section in the interim presentation, except for any updates or changes.
- Evaluation Considerations and Evaluation Measures: The same as the corresponding section in the interim presentation, except for any updates or changes.
- Decision Alternatives: The same as the corresponding section in the interim presentation, except for any updates or changes.
- Value Function Assessment: Similar to the corresponding section in the interim presentation, except for any updates or changes. Also include the assessed "raw data"' used to determine the value function, perhaps in a table. Show the math used to obtain the final value function from the assessed raw data (perhaps in a figure), as well as the parameters for the final value function.
- Scenarios: The same as the corresponding section in the interim presentation, except for any updates or changes.
- Data Collection and Evaluation Measure Scores: Similar to the corresponding section in the interim presentation, except for any updates or changes. Provide references for data sources, including interviews with experts, in standard bibliography style.
- Value Calculations and Sensitivity Analysis: Present the value calculations for the alternatives for each scenario, as well as a sensitivity analysis. Briefly describe how these computations were done, but you do not have to present the actual computations, since you are using a computer to do the calculations. Include the spreadsheet equations for your analysis as an appendix to your report. Conduct and present a systematic sensitivity analysis to investigate how variations in assumptions impact the analysis results.
- Conclusions: Present your conclusions based on the analysis in the preceding sections, including a qualitative discussion of the reasons the preferred alternative is best. The goal of this section is that someone who does not understand the details of decision analysis methods will find your Conclusions section to be a convincing argument for the preferred alternative. That is, the analysis should not be a mysterious procedure, but rather a way of developing insight about the key factors in the decision and how these lead to selection of the preferred alternative.
The oral presentation should also follow this general outline, but adjust it to the time available. Thus, you will probably not present some of the details of computation procedures and results that are required for the written report
The proposal must be handed in but is not graded. The grade for this assignment is based one-third on the interim and final presentations (each of which count equally), and two-thirds on the final report. It is anticipated that all members of a particular team will receive identical grades. However, some team members may receive lower grades based on a lack of contribution as assessed by other team members. Each team is responsible for dividing up the work and organizing its activities.
The primary basis for grading the written final report is the degree to which the work, as presented in the report, is complete, accurate, and defensible, and, in addition, how well your results are explained in lay terms in the Conclusions section. Clarity and accuracy of presentation are graded to the extent these make it difficult to judge the quality of the analysis. Examples of common problems in report presentation include 1) failure to include the required information as listed above, 2) failure to follow the specified outline, 3) failure to reference figures, tables, or appendices in the text, and 4) failure to include references for data sources.
The oral presentations are graded on clarity, accuracy, and completeness of the presentation, as well as appropriate use of overheads or other visual aids, and ability to respond to questions about the analysis. Each presentation should be sufficiently detailed for the listener to judge the quality of the analysis, but the level of detail should also be adjusted to the available time so that the typical listener is not buried in so much detail that he or she cannot keep up with the presentation.
The oral presentations should be self-contained and directed at someone who understands the material presented in this course, with the exception of the Conclusions section for the final presentation. The Conclusions section should be directed at presenting a convincing case for the preferred alternative to a lay audience. Examples of common problems in presentations include 1) failure to present key elements of the analysis, 2) lack of coordination between the spoken presentation and the visual aids, 3) inclusion of so much material in the visual aids that the listener cannot absorb this material in the available time, and 4) failure to direct the Conclusions section at a lay audience.
When each final written report is submitted, each team member has the option of providing a confidential written assessment of the contribution of each other member of his or her team. Specifically, this contribution can be rated as either "meeting expectations" or "not meeting expectations." A team member who receives a substantial number of "not meeting expectations" ratings will have his or her grade lowered for the project assignment. Note that the intent of this procedure is not to make fine distinctions regarding the level of participation, but rather to identify freeloaders. It is hoped that teams will organize and conduct their activities so that there are no freeloaders.
Making Decisions Based on Demand and Forecasting
...Assignment 1: Making Decisions Based on Demand and Forecasting Assignment 1: Making Decisions Based on Demand and Forecasting ECO 550 January 24, 2013 Assignment 1: Making Decisions Based on Demand and Forecasting Page 1 I have been considering opening a Domino’s Pizza in my community within the Virginia Beach area. In this paper I will present to you, a data analysis and a forecast of Domino Pizza’s sales revenue that consist of the demographics within my community. These demographics consist of the population size, the average income per household and the independent variables which include the price in pizza and soda. This demand analysis will be used to give an estimated forecast that will assist in my business making decision technique, which will determine if it will be beneficial for me to open a Domino’s Pizza in my area. To determine if I will enter into the market place in Virginia Beach, I will research the reported demographic and independent variables that are relevant to complete a demand analysis that has been provided to me from different resources within my community. By using Excel to calculate, I will input the data that I have collected to create an estimated regression analysis. Once the calculation has been provided, I will be able to interpret the coefficient of determination, and how it has provided an influence on my decision to open the pizza business in my area. Variables. The......
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Information Decision Making
...CMI LEVEL 5 DIPLOMA IN MANAGEMENT & LEADERSHIP (5D1) Assignment 5 Unit 5006 C5009 Project development and control Unit 5002 Information based decision making Andor Kovacs CMI no: 4205133 Assignment 5_Submission1 AEA group Assignment Requirements 5002.....................................................................................4 Learning Outcome 1: Be able to identify and select sources of data and information ....................................................................................................................................4 1.1 Discuss the nature of data and information......................................................4 1.2 Evaluate relevant sources of data and information..........................................4 1.3 Discuss the criteria for selection of data and information................................4 1.4 Identify the legal requirements relating to the collection, use and storage of data and information...............................................................................................4 Learning Outcome 2: Be able to analyse and present information to support decision making..........................................................................................................4 2.1 Evaluate the decision making models which are used to support decision making....................................................................................................................4 2.2 Identify those to be involved in......
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Making Decisions Based on Demand and Forecasting
...this Tool 2 II. Define the Objectives of the Analysis 4 The Reason for Analysis of Demand 4 The Economic Case for Demand Intervention 4 Analysis of Demand for the Policy Maker 5 Design an Analysis of Demand Study 6 Components of a Study 6 The Nature of Econometric Analysis 7 Resources Required 7 Summary 8 References and Additional Information 8 III. Conduct Background Research 9 IV. Build the Data Set 11 Choose the Variables 11 Data Availability 11 Data Types 12 Prepare the Data 13 Data Cleaning and Preliminary Examination 14 Preparing the Data Variables 14 References and Additional Information 19 V. Choose the Demand Model 20 Determine the Identification Problem 20 Test for Price Endogeneity 21 Find Instrumental Variables 21 Select the Demand Model Type 21 Select the Functional Form 22 VI. Specify the Demand Function 24 Demand Specifications for Annual Time-Series Data 24 Dependent Variable 24 Conventional Demand......
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Making Decisions Based on Demand and Forecasting
...Making Decisions Based on Demand and Forecasting Robyn Wilson Strayer University Econ 550 Assignment One January 31, 2013 Report the demographic and independent variables that are relevant to complete a demand analysis providing a rationale for the selection of the variables. Demographics are an important variable when choosing target marketing strategies. The variables are relevant to complete a demand analysis by providing a rationale for the selection of the variables. Whithin my area, Cross, SC, I am looking at local demographics and paying special attention to the following: • Age: Persons under 18 years percent 27.4% • Income levels: Average 39,779 per household • Persons below poverty level: 17.2% • Education: Bachelor degree age 25+ percent 13.1% • Housing: ownership rate 57.9% Making an informed analysis will inform you about the spending and eating habits of the people who live in the servicing area. Demogrphics give you a clear understanding of the areas behavior, values, cultures, interests and lifestyles of the community. Data research was consider because of the amount of time given for the assignment. The success of Domino’s opening a location in Cross, SC will depend on the factors listed above. Having a customer loyalty program that will have frequent customers that will come buy the products will help the company save on selling......
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Relevant Information for Decision Making
...------------------------------------------------- Chapter 10—Relevant Information for Decision Making MULTIPLE CHOICE 1. Costs forgone when an individual or organization chooses one option over another are a. | budgeted costs. | b. | sunk costs. | c. | historical costs. | d. | opportunity costs. | ANS: D PTS: 1 DIF: Easy OBJ: 10-1 NAT: AACSB: Reflective Thinking LOC: AICPA Functional Competencies: Decision Modeling 2. Which of the following costs would not be accounted for in a company's recordkeeping system? a. | an unexpired cost | b. | an expired cost | c. | a product cost | d. | an opportunity cost | ANS: D PTS: 1 DIF: Easy OBJ: 10-1 NAT: AACSB: Reflective Thinking LOC: AICPA Functional Competencies: Decision Modeling 3. Which of the following is not a characteristic of relevant costing information? It is a. | associated with the decision under consideration. | b. | significant to the decision maker. | c. | readily quantifiable. | d. | related to a future endeavor. | ANS: C PTS: 1 DIF: Easy OBJ: 10-1 NAT: AACSB: Reflective Thinking LOC: AICPA Functional Competencies: Decision Modeling 4. A fixed cost is relevant if it is a. | uncontrollable. | b. | avoidable. | c. | sunk. | d. | a product cost. | ANS: B PTS: 1 DIF: Easy OBJ: 10-1 NAT: AACSB: Reflective Thinking LOC: AICPA Functional......
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Making Decision Based on Demmand and for Forcasting
...Making Decision Based on Demand and For Casting Presented By: Earnest Lee Sims Presented By: Dr. Domino’s pizza is conducting data to decide to whether to open a store in Lake Providence, Louisiana. Domino’s pizza will complete an indept evaluation and research of this city to determine should they open up a store and the potential demand for the area. Domino will collect data and information on the following areas males, females, children, population, unemployment, and income and food environment. Upon collecting conduct a regression analysis. According to McCvigar. Moyer, and Harris stated that “given any particular value of (mana gerial economics, doll). We can therefore, assess demand for Domino pizza in Lake Providence, Louisiana on various factors such as population, education and food environment. Demographic and Independent Variables The new location of a new Domino’s pizza will be in Lake Providence, Louisiana 71254 which is located in East Carroll Parish, we will be conducting a demand analysis on Lake Providence being the only major city has a population of 3,848 in 2012 in East Carroll Parish in 2012 (city-data). The population also consists 1,728 or 44.9% males, 2,120 or 55.1% females, median resident age 31.0 years, income $19,650, number of grocery stores 3, and number of full services restaurants. Population and income will play a crucial role in Domino’s pizza decision to open up a chain in Lake Providence, Louisiana. According to McGigan, Moyer and......
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Making Decisions Based on Demands
...Making Decisions Based on Demand and Forecasting Latonya Woodrow Instructor Name: Dr.Samuel F. Onipede ECO 550 –Managerial Economics and Globalization July 21, 2013 College Students buy pizza in large quantities for a cheap price, but if the prices were to increase, then these same students may look for similar alternatives that will not empty their wallets. These are possible alternatives that offer a large quantity of food at a reasonable price that can affect the demand of pizza. However, monitoring the costs of the competing fast food restaurants in the Charlotte, North Carolina, area will allow Domino’s Pizza to offer certain specials and pizza deals to the community that can keep their demand at a high rate. A market demand analysis is used to help understand how much consumer demand there is for a given product or service. This type of analysis will help determine if a business can successfully enter a market and generate enough revenue and profit to maintain the business. One must identify the market and the growth potential. Domino’s Pizza was incorporated in 1963 and has been franchising since 1967. A traditional Domino’s store is located in shopping centers and/or strip malls with appropriate parking for delivery vehicles and walk-in customers for carry-out services...
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Information for Decision Making
...(COMPuter STATistics) is used as a law enforcement crime fighting strategy by the New York City Police Department. CompStat uses Geographic information system (GIS) to map the locations of where crimes occur, identify: hotspots”, and map problem areas. CompStat has amassed a wealth of historical crime data which are used by Mathematicians to design and develop algorithms for predicting future crimes. The CompStat process can be summarized in one simple statement: "Collect, analyze, and map crime data and other essential police performance measures on a regular basis, and hold police managers accountable for their performance as measured by these data(The CompStat Process, 2003). a. Input CompStat is an information-driven managerial process. Accurate and timely information is important. The basic information necessary for prudent, informed decisions by Department executives can come from a variety of sources: calls for service, field interview reports, prisoner debriefings, incident reports, and UCR reports. Information is accurate if it reflects what actually occurred at a given time and place. Accuracy can be authenticated through supervisory review and approval. Supervisors usually review and approve all written documents before they become official records. Timely information is another important aspect, which is the most current information available, being collected and acted upon as near to the occurrence as possible(The CompStat Process, 2003). b. Processing......
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Making Decisions Based on Demand and Forecasting
...Running Head: DEMAND AND FORECASTING Making Decisions Based on Demand and Forecasting [bami] strayer University] Making Decisions Based on Demand and Forecasting The demographics used for the demand analysis are the average yearly income of the house hold in Georgia, the total yearly population, and average kids per house. The rationale behind choosing these demographics is that the demand is highly associated with the average income, and can have a great impact on the demand of the economy, for higher the income, the higher the spending ability of an average house hold. Therefore, it can also be said that the average income is directly proportional to the spending ability of an average house hold, whereas as far as total yearly population is concerned, demand is also associated with the total population, as for demand arises with rise in population. Average kids per house hold also have a strong link with demand. Considering the fact that pizza is highly popular among kids, and is the cause of its major demand. The other independent variables used for conducting a demand analysis are price of the pizza, and price of the soda. The rationale behind choosing these demographics is that the demand is also highly associated with price, as per the demand and supply law, the lower the price the higher the demand, and the higher the price, the lower the demand. Pizza and soda are two main products of a pizza restaurant...
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Information Based Decision Making
...| Information based decision making | Unit 5002V1 | | | 4/1/2015 | Task 1 (600-700 words): A.C.1.1 – Examine the nature of data and information Data comprises of factual information. Data are the facts from which information is derived. Data is not necessarily informative on its own but needs to be structured, interpreted, analysed and contextualised. Once data undergoes this process, it transforms in to information. Information should be accessible and understood by the reader without needing to be interpreted or manipulated in any way. Knowledge is the framework for understanding information and using it to inform judgements, opinions, predictions and decisions – a pyramidal relationship (See diagram 1) Diagram 1: There are 2 types of knowledge: 1) Explicit knowledge (“know that”) – derived from facts, easily communicated via hard data and facts and 2) Tacit knowledge (“know how”) – more of a personal framework informed by beliefs, schemata, mental frameworks, difficult to verbalise or write down, more based on process rather than factual content. In the field of knowledge management, tacit knowledge is individual specific and can be acquired without language through observation and practice. This type of knowledge is acquired through experience, and therefore from a knowledge management perspective, shared experiences are a key platform to share tacit knowledge. A clinical example: The Trust has a standard assessment proforma for new patients...
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Information for Decision Making
...Information System for decision making An information system can be deployed and used as a Decision Support System (DSS). Nowduri (2011, p.2) states that ‘The role of MIS in decision support is best discussed in the context of the subset referred to as Decision Support System (DSS). A DSS is a computer based system (an application program) capable of analyzing an organizational (or business) data and then presents it in a way that helps the user to make business decisions more efficiently and effectively. It is basically an informational application which depends on the information already input while answering to a given query.’ Hui’s major concerns with multiple locations are managing staff leave, payroll, timesheet and overall student information management. An information system will hold the data centrally which would help her to manage these very easily. Also due to readily available information about timesheets and leave, payroll calculation will become much easier and error free. Moreover since data will be stored centrally, data duplication will be none to minimum. Not only the top management, decision makers of every level can use the information from the system for better and faster decision making. ‘Usually the DSS is used by all levels of people within a business organization. Top level management uses DSS for strategic decisions, middle management uses for tactical decision while first line supervisors use deploy it for day-to-day operational decisions.’......
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Standard Based Decision Making
...Standard-Based Decision Making Courteney Alderman ETH/376 March 23, 2015 Juanita Davis Audit Opinions When performing an audit there are four different types of audit opinions that Green and Associates can provide when the audit has been finished. They can provide an unqualified, unqualified with explanatory paragraph, qualified, and an adverse opinion. * Unqualified opinion- An auditor can give an unqualified opinion when it comes to a company’s financial statements when the financials show their financial position, shows the results of their operations, and shows the company’s cash flows. This type of opinion can also be known as a clean opinion which means that the financials show to be presented fairly. * Unqualified with explanatory paragraph opinion- This type of opinion only happens when one of five situations are reported. When a justified departure from GAAP happens, when there is an inconsistent application of GAAP, when there is a growing concern, when there is an emphasis of a matter, and when there is a need to reference other auditors. * Qualified opinion- This type of opinion means that the auditor has taken an exception to certain current-period accounting applications or is unable to establish the potential outcome of a material uncertainty. Also meaning that the auditors’ reservations or has an uncertainty about how fairly the material is presented in some different areas of the financial statements. This opinion is stated qualified......
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Cmi 5002 Information Based Decision Making
...|Name: | |CMI Candidate Number: | |Centre: Premier Partnership | Unit 5002 – Information based decision making Assignment 1. Explain and provide examples of the differences between data and information, and describe at least three different sources of management data and information. Prepare a chart to evaluate the benefits and possible drawbacks of each source of information in terms of its usefulness in helping managers to make sound business decisions. Describe the selection criteria you would apply to ensure the quality and integrity of the data and information you use for decision-making. Give reasons for each selection criteria. This covers assessment criteria: 1. Examine the nature of data and information 2. Evaluate relevant sources of data and information 3. Discuss the criteria for selection of data and information Guideline word count: 450 - 500 1.1 Examine the nature of data and information Data can be described as facts and figures which relay something specific but that are raw and still need to be processed and organised. Data can be classified as......
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Evidence Based and Decision Making and Discovery
...Evidence Based Decision Making and Discovery | |Compare |Contrast | |Quantitative Research |-Requires the collection, analysis, and |-Research is deductive, logical or | | |reporting of data. |reasonable. | | |-Reporting data consist of supplying |-A hypothesis is needed to begin research. | | |readers with participant information, data |- The researcher is ideally an objective | | |patterns, recognition of biases, and |observer that neither participates in nor | | |further research to be conducted |did influence what is being study (Barnes, | | |surrounding the topic. |2005). ...
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Information Based Decision Making
...1.1 (a) Definition of both term (with references) (b) Example of what is data/information in your organization 1.2 State various sources/ example online, reports, personal file Evaluate at least 2 - The sources you choose state why they are better than the others sources 1.3 Discuss the criteria a manager will use for selection of data and information An explanation of how managers filter/evaluate which data/information is useful and what is not useful. 1.4 List and discuss local legislation/UK. Legislation that protect against the collection of data and information 2.1 state a few models Evaluate at least 2 of the models Examples - Adair model SWOT SPELT Rational model Pros & cons 2.2 Name/list of persons Examples of how they would analyze information to make a decision 2.3 list the methods of presenting decision made and valuated as least 2 methods – how a senior manager will present decision to - Board - Other Manager - Stake holder 3.1 evaluate how a middle manager will communicate the decision to the staff 3.2 discuss the process of implementing a communication method How would you put in place a communication method to share decision with others? Example - Meeting – what is the best time to have the meeting - E-mail – do everyone have and e-mail account / how often do they check the e-mail 3.3 evaluate on 3.2 How effective is the communication...
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